Current Conditions
Blowing Rock

Temp: 28.1°F

Forecast Last Updated at Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 6:59AM

Appetizer Today for Tomorrow's Entree

Light snow and flurries developed after midnight mostly in the northern half of the High Country. Light snow today will mix with rain, freezing rain, and sleet at times. Today's accumulations will be elevation-dependent (a dusting to 1" below 3000' and 1"-3" below 4000', and 2"-4" above 4000'). These totals are cut about 1" from yesterday's forecast. The "real deal" will take shape this evening as bitterly colder weather arrives. Expect blizzard conditions (see the discussion section for a definition of "blizzard") at times Wednesday in the eastern two-thirds of the High Country. Accumulations tonight through Thursday morning will be between 2" (far eastern sections) to 10" (higher elevations along the TN/NC line). Cities will pick up 3"-7" (lower totals east, higher west). But who will be able to measure it?... Temperatures by early Wednesday morning will be in the low single digits on the mountaintops and 10° to 15° in valleys. Winds will increase late tonight with gusts to 55 mph during the day Wednesday and to 70 mph Wednesday night. Snow showers will taper to flurries Thursday morning and end mostly by noon. Temperatures for the rest of this week and into early next week will range from bitterly cold to very cold.

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Tuesday Hi: 33 Lo: 9 Cloudy; Light snow (mixing with rain, freezing rain, and sleet); Turning sharply colder tonight; SE wind 5-10 mph (gusty at higher elev's) becoming WNW 20-30 mph after midnight with gusts to 50 mph

Wednesday Hi: 17 Lo: 10 Cloudy, big wind & cold; Snow & blowing snow with periods of snow squalls; NW wind 25-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph becoming 30-40 mph at night with gusts to 70 mph

Thursday Hi: 25 Lo: 15 AM snow showers tapering to flurries; Then partly cloudy; Very cold; NW wind 20-30 mph with AM gusts to 60 mph

Friday Hi: 31 Lo: 17 Sunny with some high clouds increasing; Watching the Gulf

Saturday Hi: 26 Lo: 15 Partly cloudy; Cold; Snow showers or flurries possible late at night

Further Out

Sunday - Mostly cloudy; Cold; Snow showers & flurries; High in the upper 20s; Low in the mid teens
Monday - Partly cloudy; Flurries possible; Continued cold; High in the mid 20s; Low in the mid teens

Forecast Discussion

Let's take care of today first and then move to the big deal in this forecast.
A front will move through late today or early this evening from the west. Ahead of the front expect light snow mixing with rain/freezing rain/sleet. Temperatures will eke above freezing today at elevations below 3500' except for those favored spots right along the Blue Ridge on the eastern edge of the Appalachians. Precipitation will remain all snow above 4500'. Accumulations will be a dusting to 1" below 3000' and 1"-3" below 4000', and 2"-4" above 4000'--no big deal relative to what we have seen and what we are about to see.

Folks who don't actually read the forecast but talk about it anyway will be naysayers about sunset today; then will become believers again Wednesday. Behind the front this evening, sharply colder air (rivaling the coldest of the season thus far) will arrive on gusty NW winds. Later tonight, Wednesday, and early morning Thursday, expect snow and blowing snow with blizzard conditions at times. Temperatures will be bitterly cold (low single digits up to and 10° to 15° in valleys) by Wednesday morning. Winds will be brutal gusting to 55 mph during the daytime Wednesday and to 70 mph Wednesday night. Gusty winds will continue well into Thursday. Winds chills on mountaintops will be below -30° and below -10° in valleys.

I can tell from emails yesterday that many do not really know the definition of "blizzard". A blizzard is defined as a snowstorm with sustained winds of at least 35 mph reducing visibility to less than one-quarter mile for at least three hours. That criteria will be met Wednesday in the western two-thirds of the High Country (most of the day for higher elevations right along the TN/NC line). I can also tell that many are confused by the phrase "higher elevations right along the TN/NC line". For specifics, look at a map and follow the TN/NC line from north to south. You will find Pond Mtn, Three-Top Mtn, Snake Mtn, Rich Mtn, Stone Mtn, Beech Mtn, Roan Mtn, Wolf Laurel, and then the Smokies. Those mountains generally get the heaviest snow from a northwest flow snow event like Wednesday's. Details of where the heaviest snow occurs depends on the exact wind trajectory.

After noon Thursday, COLD is the story. The seven days after today may not be as cold the arctic outbreak in early January, but it will be extremely cold. The next El Nino system still appears to affect areas to our south (light snow Friday is still not out of the question but it's out of the forecast). Snow showers and flurries will be possible late Saturday night and Sunday.

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