Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 5:55PM
Subtle Slow-moving Features
Weather in the Southeast looks like traffic around the bridge construction on Blowing Rock Road in Boone during graduation weekend--slow-moving, but if you watch long enough you can tell it is moving somewhat. We have waited for three days for a front to move from west to east far enough away to give us a break and today worked out well in that regard. However, a front Thursday will move north to south producing more clouds and scattered showers/thundershowers Thursday afternoon and evening. Drier air will gradually filter in from the north Friday and Saturday reducing afternoon thundershower coverage to "isolated" Friday followed by a dry Saturday.
Wednesday Hi: 78 Lo: 54  Scattered clouds; A stray shower or t-shower still possible; Cooler overnight; NW wind 5-15 mph  |
Thursday Hi: 78 Lo: 54 Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; Light north wind becoming SE |
Friday Hi: 76 Lo: 53 Partly cloudy; An isolated PM shower or t-shower possible; SE wind 5-10 mph |
Saturday Hi: 77 Lo: 52 Lots of sunshine; Pleasant May temperatures |
Sunday Hi: 77 Lo: 54 A few PM clouds; Pleasant |
Further Out
Monday - Scattered clouds; Pleasant; High in the upper 70s; Low in the mid 50s
Tuesday - More PM clouds; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; High near 80 degrees; Low in the upper 50s
Forecast Discussion
The remnant of the front that moved through here early Monday is located from New Jersey to Greensboro to Savannah GA. That has been far enough to our east to give us a mostly dry day. Chances of a stray shower diminish quickly as we head through overnight.
That frontal remnant will drift just off the Carolina Coast and stall there and be the breading ground for low pressure early next week. There are lots of "ifs, ands, and buts" about that possible low, but effects if any on us are mostly indirect. High pressure will move from the Ohio Valley today to the Northeast by Friday and then just off the New England Coast. Thursday and Friday, this high will nose down Appalachians pushing a backdoor front through here Thursday.
Once the backdoor front moves through, we'll be in a moist southeasterly flow resulting in more clouds and scattered showers/thundershowers Thursday afternoon and evening. As the high noses farther south, we'll be in progressively drier air Friday and Saturday--only isolated afternoon shower chances Friday and a dry Saturday result.
Sunday's weather will depend on development of that low off the Southeast coast. We think it will be too far to our east to have a significant effect on our weather; however, we have increased clouds for Sunday afternoon and left the forecast (although an afternoon shower cannot completely be ruled out at this point).
Monday looks dry at this point with scattered clouds. The next front from the west gets close enough to spark scattered PM showers and thundershowers Tuesday.
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