Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, August 21, 2008 at 12:40PM

Fay, Fay, Fay, Fay, Fay

You're tired of hearing about Fay. We're tired of talking about it, but it will be THE weather topic through the middle of next week. Details about the Fay forecast can be found in the Discussion Section below. Today through the weekend, we will have only indirect effects of Fay--a moist southeasterly flow producing clouds, morning fog, and spotty light rain mostly east along the Blue Ridge at night or in the early morning. Areas near the TN/NC line will have more sun and warmer temperatures.

Music on the Mountain is this Saturday at the Fairgrounds near Boone. Sam Bush headlines a long list of great acts. Fay's delay to our south will keep the weather mostly dry for this great event. See our hourly forecast for the event.

Voting in the 2009 Ray's Weather Center Calendar Photo Contest ended August 20. Winners will be announced by September 1.

Thursday Hi: 69 Lo: 58 Partly to mostly cloudy; Spotty drizzle or light rain mostly near the Blue Ridge; SE wind 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at night on mtntops

Friday Hi: 68 Lo: 59 Cloudy with patchy fog; Spotty drizzle or light rain mostly near the Blue Ridge; SE wind 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at night on mtntops

Saturday Hi: 72 Lo: 59 Mostly cloudy with AM fog; Chance of a stray shower near the Blue Ridge; SE wind 5-15 mph

Sunday Hi: 70 Lo: 58 Mostly to partly cloudy with AM fog possible; Chance of a stray shower near the Blue Ridge

Monday Hi: 71 Lo: 58 Scattered clouds; Chance of a stray shower

Further Out

Tuesday - Becoming mostly cloudy; Showers & t-showers late; High near 70 degrees; Low in the upper 50s
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy; Showers and t-showers; High in the upper 60s; Low in the upper 50s

Forecast Discussion

Fay is and will continue to be the weather story for the next 7 days. After a slow march across Florida from Naples to Melbourne Tuesday and Wednesday, Fay is stationary just ESE of Daytona. Melbourne and Cocoa Beach seem to be the hardest hit with rain in excess of 25" reported in northern Melbourne. Fay strengthened slightly overnight and may continue to strengthen while it is over water. However, Fay is expected to begin moving WNW today. Today through early Saturday, it will move from Daytona toward the Florida Panhandle or into the extreme northern Gulf. At that point the forecast becomes more problematic. Any time spent over Gulf waters will be opportunity for re-strengthening. Re-strengthening over the Gulf would be our best chance to see significant rain out of Fay--a stronger storm will have a better chance to move north with sufficient moisture to give us some rain. By Tuesday, Fay will be influenced by a front that will be moving across the Tennessee River Valley Monday, stalling near us Tuesday and Wednesday. Beneficial rain from Fay could reach our area late Tuesday lasting through Wednesday as it moves slowly NE along the front.

In the meantime, we are in a moist, maritime, SE flow. We can expect lots of clouds from now through Monday. Rain will be spotty and light, mostly limited to the eastern escarpment of the Appalachians (along the Blue Ridge). Furthermore, this spotty, light rain is most likely at night and in the early morning. Fog and drizzle will also be an issue especially near the Blue Ridge. Areas closer to the TN/NC line will have fewer clouds and only the slightest chance of a stray shower. With Fay moving slowly to our south, this pattern will last through the weekend with humidity/clouds increasing through Friday and diminishing gradually Saturday through Monday.

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap and Waynesville were recently added; Black Mountain will be up and running very soon. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.