Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, August 28, 2008 at 2:27PM

The Perfect Storm?

The remnants of Fay was just about the perfect storm for us. It did not affect a weekend, but delivered all the rain our streams and rivers could hold without producing any significant flooding in the area. Three day rain totals are impressive (as of 7 AM): 9.02" at Roaring Gap, 8.37" at Laurelmor, 4.25" in Boone, 4.63" in Warrensville, 5.63" at Sugar Mtn, 4.33" in Burnsville, and 1.80" at Cherokee Cove. For most of the region, the rain deficit for 2008 was cut in half. And we are not completely finished. A shower or two is possible for the remainder of the day, along with the slight chance of a scattered thundershower this afternoon. Friday will be drier but still have the slight chance of an afternoon thundershower. A front moves through Saturday bringing scattered PM thundershowers. Drier weather comes early next week.

Voting in the 2009 Ray's Weather Center Calendar Photo Contest ended August 20. Winners will be announced by September 1.

Thursday Hi: 75 Lo: 62 Maybe a brief break in the clouds; A shower or drizzle possible; SE wind 5-10 mph becoming light at night

Friday Hi: 77 Lo: 62 Lots of clouds; A bit warmer; Slight chance of a PM t-shower; Light east wind

Saturday Hi: 80 Lo: 60 Mostly cloudy; Scattered PM t-showers; SE wind 5-10 mph becoming light at night

Sunday Hi: 79 Lo: 60 Partly cloudy; Slight chance of a PM t-shower

Monday Hi: 78 Lo: 59 Scattered clouds; Pleasant

Further Out

Tuesday - More sun than clouds; Pleasant; High in the upper 70s; Low in the upper 50s
Wednesday - Mostly clear; Continued nice weather; High in the upper 70s; Low near 60 degrees

Forecast Discussion

Fay's remnant low is in southwest Virginia, barely discernible. It will fade off the weather map today. The moisture conveyor belt from the south that produced all the rain for the past three days is waning as well. Drying out the atmosphere will be a slow process today and tomorrow. We can expect a few lingering showers around the mountain region, then scattered thundershowers are possible this afternoon, depending on how much sun and warmth we can accumulate. We should get a brief look at the sun this afternoon--the fuel for potential thunder.

The slow drying process will continue Friday. We'll have lots of clouds but see more sun. An afternoon shower or thundershower cannot be ruled out with lots of humidity remaining across our area.

Saturday a weak front will move through from the northwest increasing the chance for a PM thundershower. Sunday, that front will be to our southeast. Skies will be partly cloudy; an afternoon thundershower will be a slight possibility.

Monday through Wednesday, high pressure will build overhead with drier air finally taking control. We can expect pleasant weather.

Gustav was beaten up pretty well in its encounter with Hispaniola, but it is now poised for restrengthening. It is now less than 50 miles east of Jamaica after a jog to the SW Wednesday night. The projected path takes it right over Jamaica today, near Grand Cayman Friday night, and near the western tip of Cuba Saturday night. Sunday, it will be in the Gulf of Mexico possibly as a major hurricane. It's just too early for serious speculation about exactly where Gustav could make landfall in the US--Louisiana and east Texas still appear to be the most likely targets. This morning, I heard a Charlotte weather guy suggesting that Gustav could make a turn in our direction next week; there is absolutely NO computer model support for that suggestion. I'm sorry but that idea is just plain dumb, and nothing more than trying to scare folks into watching mind-numbing TV. It's more likely that Gustav will remain in LA/AR/TX after landfall, but even that is just early thinking out loud.

Another named storm has formed NE of the northern leeward islands. It was classified as a tropical depression as early as this morning, but has since strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Hanna. It will drift NW and then west through the weekend. It is expected to be northeast of the Bahamas Sunday as a hurricane. If you are looking for potential impact on our weather, that's the storm to watch but not for another 10 days (next weekend or early the following week).

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap and Waynesville were recently added; Black Mountain will be up and running very soon. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.