Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, July 4, 2009 at 7:01AM

Happy Fourth of July

Your Fourth of July forecast is about as good as it gets. Plenty of sunshine, comfortable temperatures and dry weather will all make for a perfect day for your outdoor plans. Forecast highs will be right around average for this time of year. Extra clouds will start to roll in later today as our next weather maker approaches from the south. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system but should hold off until after midnight. Sunday looks wet. We'll start the new work week with a few leftover showers and storms for the first part of the day before drying begins late Monday afternoon. From Tuesday onward, we're maintaining a dry forecast with moderating temperatures through the end of next week.

Saturday Hi: 76 Lo: 59 Partly cloudy day, mostly cloudy night; T-showers possible at night, especially after midnight; West wind 5-10 mph

Sunday Hi: 71 Lo: 59 Cloudy; Showers & t-showers; SW wind 5-15 mph (except 10-20 mph & gusty at higher elev's)

Monday Hi: 76 Lo: 56 Mostly cloudy; Scattered daytime showers & t-showers; Drying out later by late afternoon; West wind 5-10 mph

Tuesday Hi: 77 Lo: 58 Partly cloudy; Pleasant

Wednesday Hi: 78 Lo: 59 More sun than clouds; Pleasant

Further Out

Thursday - Scattered clouds; Warmer & more humid but mostly nice; High near 80 degrees; Low in the lower 60s
Friday - Partly cloudy; Continued warm; High in the lower 80s; Low in the lower 60s

Forecast Discussion

We'll get to the most important details first - will our Fourth of July forecast include any mention of that four letter word that begins with "r"? The simple answer - No! Other than a few high and mid-level clouds, we expect a dry day across the High Country. Your outdoor activities look safe. We do expect increasing clouds by the evening hours, but expect any showers and storms to hold off until after midnight.

On to the rest of the forecast...

Our forecast discussion, for the last several days, has mentioned a stationary front to our south. Today, this front is positioned from the Florida panhandle west to New Orleans, up through the Arklatex and into Kansas, where an associated low pressure center sits.

This front will finally begin to move northward today and enter the RWC forecast area Sunday. The threat for showers and storms increases after midnight tonight and will remain with us all day Sunday. The front is expected to stall over the Carolinas before heading back south on Monday. We'll maintain a shower and storm mention through the first half of Monday.

From Tuesday onward, expect a drier forecast and warming temperatures. The 80 degree mark looks to return for some High Country folks by Thursday and Friday of next week.

Enjoy the Fourth! Be safe!

Announcements

Summer Rain Forecasts

I'm asked often about wording for summer shower and thundershower coverage. If we think no one in the region will see rain, we will not mention it in the forecast. If we think only single, renegade thundershower is possible (less than 20% coverage area), we'll generally leave it out of the forecast but mention in the discussion section (or possibility use language like "slightest chance", "stray", or "renegade"). If we think around 20 percent of the region will see rain on a given day, we'll include in the forecast box and use language like "slight chance", "isolated", or "small chance", etc. Widely scattered" indicates coverage of about 25 percent. "Scattered" generally means 30%-50% coverage. When about 50 percent of the region is expected to see rain, we'll use phrases like "good chance". When rain chances are in the 60-70 percent realm, a "likely" qualifier used, and above that, we don't use any particular qualification and just say "showers or thunderstorms". We generally do not use "percent chance of precipitation" in our forecasts--rather we try to focus on when, where, and how much. Isn't that what you really want to know? However, specificity like this in summer forecasts is very difficult. Last Wednesday, we had stations picking up 2" of rain on the same day when others only 20 miles away saw virtually no rain. Forecasting those kinds of specifics is impossible. Finally, words like "storm" (instead of "shower"), "severe", or "strong" indicate greater intensity of an event that may include heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, or hail.

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